Bill Gates himself experienced the computer revolution and was one of the drivers of digital transformation. However, he has been repeating for months that the paradigm shift provided by AI is something unprecedented in human history.
As Gates elaborated in an essay published on his personal page in August, the transition from the field to the office spanned several generations. Now technology can “replace human knowledge” and will hit law, medicine, customer service, software and manufacturing “for more than a decade.” Moreover, the billionaire assured that AI will be the “greatest equalizer ever invented”, but it will be the “worst source of injustice” as it will leave professionals trained for decades without jobs overnight in their respective fields.
Twenty years of ups and downs. Gates explained in the podcast ‘Decoder‘What is your biggest fear? “My big concern is this 20-year transition period, where there will be winners and losers and a lot of disruption.” This transition period will be necessary for the displacement of employment that the World Economic Fund has already talked about in 2025 and some other recent studies will occur, where millions of workers will have to be retrained to find new jobs.
The billionaire emphasized that even the best AI management scenario “will not prevent this from being one of the most tumultuous moments that has ever existed in the history of humanity.” He acknowledges that the timeframe is a guess, but it could be shortened, making the change even more traumatic. It took more than 15 years for personal computers to be implemented in offices, but according to Gates, their impact is significantly less than the arrival of AI.
Office first, work later. As he explained in his interview, Gates believes the trauma will hit office jobs first. Microsoft’s co-founder believes there will no longer be a shortage of workers in areas such as telesales, telephone support and accounting. Not because there are more professionals, but because AI will take over their jobs in a “radically cheaper, faster and more precise” way.
However, other areas with manufacturing labor shortages will also be affected by the arrival of humanoid robots. Gates said that “if we choose not to slow down or stop massively, we’ll have robots that can build houses, grow food, and perform surgery.” The billionaire wasn’t so clear on his estimate of how long it would take to start seeing the effects of the convergence of AI and humanoid robots, recalling that some say two or three years for humanoids, while others say eight years. At the moment, manufacturers of these robots seem keen to flood the market with them as soon as possible.
What to do with so much free time. Gates, widely known for his workaholism, maintains that employment is an important part of human psychology and development as a society because it provides purpose, economic self-sufficiency, and social bonding. That’s why he suggests reserving jobs with high empathy loads such as childcare, food preparation, art or sports for humans, even if a machine could do them better.
He’s not the only one talking about cutting hours. Jeff Bezos and Jamie Dimon propose a shorter work week. Elon Musk suggests that “work will be optional” and that livelihoods must be ensured through universal income.
The bad thing is that you have to suffer first. The downside is that, ahead of this supposed era of abundance and leisure time, cyber attacks and the labor market will continue to suffer significant negative impacts in the next two or three years.
He is not the only one who supports this theory. Sam Altman also hypothesizes that AI will bring great advances to humanity, but will break many more in its path. Another thing that both the millionaires agree on is that the government and authorities are not really aware of what the arrival of this technological revolution means.
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Picture | Flickr (European Parliament), Magnificent
