That mess of blue lines above is a visual summary of the last 45 years of temperature in the equatorial Pacific, summarized and below. That context, but the story is something else: the red line. That is the figures till now in 2026.
This and, for the first time, we need to extend the axis to four degrees of discrepancy so that it does not come from above.
What exactly is El Nino? It is worth remembering that we are referring to a cyclical (albeit very irregular) climate phenomenon that has great influence on global climate. Huge, actually. If we exclude the seasons, it is the most important source of annual climate variability on the entire planet.
During the warm phase (i.e. during El Niño) the absence of strong trade winds that cool the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, causes the temperature of that region of the ocean to skyrocket. it is this Through various atmospheric telecommunicationswhich disrupts all the weather systems of the world.
The impacts are diverse and vary by region (“Drier than normal conditions in some parts of the world; in others it brings more rain. Some countries have to deal with significant droughts and others with heavy rains”, AEMET says); But when we talk about temperature there is no doubt: El Niño is synonymous with heat.
So let’s go over the numbers. With daily NOAA data in hand, the peak of the 2015 El Niño was a contrast of +3.02°C on November 19; that of 1982, +2.78 °C; That ’97, +2.39 °C. On October 26, 2026, the same water measured +3.49 °C.
Basically, everything is there: the 2026 El Niño is about half a degree higher than in 2015, more than a degree higher than in 1997, and according to the consensus of models, it hasn’t peaked yet.
Why does it continue? Because it’s normal. This is how El Nino worked. That is, the more water there is in the Southern Hemisphere, the more its seasons determine the temperature of the water. It is normal that (in the middle of the southern spring) the temperature rises.
Moreover, in a way, El Niño is reversing itself. Under normal conditions, the trade winds act like a fan that pushes warm water towards Indonesia. When temperatures rise in the center and east of the equatorial Pacific, the winds decrease in strength and cause the same system that cools that region to stop doing so.
The thing is, at the risk of repeating myself, this is not a normal year: NASA maps show areas of the Pacific Ocean 40 cm higher than normal.
And until when? The previous record was usually set in November. So, a priority, we have one month of growth left. The WMO forecast an average of +3.7 °C for October-December, compared to the previous quarterly record of +2.6 °C, and the update on October 21 raised it to around +3.8 °C for November-January.
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