The CEO of Ryanair came to warn about this Europe will see the biggest rate hike in history next year. Ryanair CEO, Michael O’LearyIt announced this at a press conference in Brussels on October 20. The reason is that most lines in the airline sector are not immune to increases in aircraft fuel.
“You’re going to see airfares increase in Europe next year, I think 10%, 15%, maybe 20%. We’re going to see the biggest increase in airfares in European history in the next 12 months.”. In addition, according to O’Leary, it must be taken into account The number of seats will also decrease Due to bankruptcy and consolidation process in the sector.
Why so many problems with fuel? First, the war with Iran has caused its price to rise. This is affecting the margins of the lines that do not have coverage O’Leary explained that Ryanair and other European airlines are well covered for 2026.
When the conflict began, at the end of February, Ryanair (which defines itself as Europe’s largest company) had covered 80% of its fuel until March 2027 at $67 per barrel.
The problem comes later. As of April 2027, most European lines have very little compressed coverage. In Ryanair’s case, it only covers 15% of its fuel costs for next year at $85 a barrel. The spot market price is almost double.
With a hedging contract, you can predict the price of the fuel you will buy in the future.
Belgium and Boeing 737 MAX 10 cuts
In Brussels he came to announce that they were going Over 20 routes and over a million seats In its winter offering in Belgium. Because, according to the airline, the Belgian government has decided to increase the aviation tax (which according to Ryanair is from 2 to 7 euros from January 2027). Ryanair has 1.1 million seats and six fewer planes. They also suppress the opportunity to tell the Prime Minister (Bart de Weaver).
Additionally, they talked about airplanes. They are hopeful of US certification of the Boeing 737 MAX 10 before the end of October. “We are quite optimistic and believe that this deadline will be met”. On October 20, Boeing reported that Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) He signed the flight certificate. With this they hope to have 16 aircraft by early 2027.
To find out what is behind this forecast, we can look at the accounts of the sector. In June, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Cut its net profit forecast for 2026 to $23 billion (with a net margin of 2%). They estimate that line expenses will increase by 13.1% and revenue by 9.5%. The fuel bill will amount to $351 billion.
Is it noticeable on the ticket already? In May, passenger transport prices by air increased compared to the previous year (where they fell). This is what INE explained in its June note. In September they fell again (albeit lower than in September 2025), as detailed in their October 14 note. The transport group in general registered +10.5% annually (mainly due to vehicle fuel). The increase O’Leary announced is a forecast for the next 12 months.
Xataka already announced it on May 16. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the high price of kerosene, the 20 euro flight may become a relic.
How to Track a Flight Price
Regardless, we can always keep an eye on how our trip fares. There are several options. For example, in Google Flights We can follow a specific route or flight.
In addition, in the official help they tell us that we can configure it so that they send us an email when the price drops significantly. Any date option works by reducing the minimum price of the route by one month. We also have the possibility of receiving an alert if prices are likely to rise (with estimates of how much and reliability).
The latest data for the week in the IATA Weekly Monitor stood at $196.70 per barrel (up 2.2% from the previous week). This data is a market reference (not what Ryanair actually pays), but it gives an idea of the difference that exists with $85 covering 15% of their fuel by 2027.
Picture | Wikipedia with edits
