According to Counterpoint, global smartphone sales fell 20% year over year in the third quarter of 2026. It was the worst third quarter since 2012. Due to rising costs of DRAM and NAND, prices have risen 20% so far this year.
And although it has been seen coming for months, the worst is in the forecast that the same consulting firm published a month ago: when the crisis is over, the low range will not recover.
Why is it important?. The memory deficit is serious, but it will pass. The problem is that it’s giving manufacturers an alibi to do something that has no turning back: abandon cheap mobile phones.
the numbers. In 2030, about 1.2 billion mobile phones will be sold, about the same as in 2025. The market will recover, but with a different distribution:
- Mobile phones under $200 will be reduced by 40%. There are more than 230 million fewer units each year.
- $200 or more will receive a 26% increase.
Track. If someone buys a $150 cell phone and moves to one for $300, the mid-range increases. But that range falls flat. Only a portion of these buyers moved up the range. The rest extend the life of their cell phones, go for a renovation or, in some countries, don’t have smartphones.
between the lines. Manufacturers suffer from the crisis, but they also take advantage of it:
who wins. Apple surpassed 20% share for the first time in the third quarter, with 22%, despite lower iPhone sales than a year ago. It sells less, but weighs more. A crisis that rewards those who were already at a premium is not neutral.
Background. The memory that doesn’t make it to cheap mobile phones goes to AI data centers, which pay much better. Computing was centralized in the cloud and out of the pockets of those who had the least.
Counterpoint itself warns that, without affordable terminals, the influx of new Internet users will be cut off in countries with fewer resources. In the past three decades, the smartphone has been the most democratic computer in history.
The question is no longer when RAM will die out, which we already know will take years. Now the question is whether anyone will make a 120 euro mobile again. And no one has any more incentive to do so.
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