Anthropologists are preparing to go public. If its plans go ahead, the American artificial intelligence (AI) laboratory will start trading on the stock market in November. The spectacular development they experienced Their frontier model (and some of its competitors too) has been an asset in its favor over the last six months which could help it achieve a very high valuation. In fact, some analysts think it could fetch a valuation of around two trillion dollars.
However, this assessment is not unanimous. Hezei Risk Management, an American financial analysis firm, maintains that competition from China threatens Anthropic’s final valuation, which cannot exceed $1.5 trillion. It’s a huge figure, no doubt, but if this prediction ends up being fulfilled, a valuation of less than $500,000 million will be a real blow for the Dario Amodi-led company.
The strength of Chinese AI labs lies in their ability to bring affordable options to market, many with open weights, allowing companies and developers to run models without relying on Anthropic’s commercial services. Open weight models are increasingly relevant in the AI market. In fact, they already represent almost half Token which are processed globally and currently there are no indicators that predict trend changes
Anthropologists’ profitability is under scrutiny
The distance separating the US and Chinese frontier AI models from a technological perspective has narrowed over the past six months. Moonshot AI, DeepSeek or Z.ai, among other Chinese laboratories, have very advanced models capable of following the most sophisticated proposals of OpenAI, Anthropic or Google, provoking a current of thought that considers whether it is really necessary to face the huge investments that American laboratories are making.
Its revenue reached $16.8 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up nearly 50% from the previous quarter.
Some Chinese companies are increasing the price of their models. Z.ai has raised the price of its GLM model several times, and DeepSeek doubled the price of its flagship V4 model in August. Still China’s proposal They continue to be cheap Compared to comparable Americans, and the technological advantage of the latter is becoming smaller. This scenario casts doubt on Anthropic’s profitability despite improving recent financial results.
Its revenue reached $16.8 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up nearly 50% from the previous quarter. However, Hedge Risk Management argues that its growth has slowed and expanding the use of AI models does not guarantee higher returns if prices stagnate or decline. Competitive pressure from China is increasing at a most critical time for anthropologists.
Regardless, Anthropic hasn’t been sitting idly by. Its strongest defense strategy involves making it difficult for Chinese laboratories to develop models of their borders. By Claude Patan. Thus, on paper, Chinese companies will be forced to invest more in research and lose competitiveness. Anthropologie claims that it has already managed to reduce this practice by 99%, and that the measures it has implemented have affected its income by between 5% and 7%. Will it be enough to assuage the potential mistrust of some investors? We will test it in November.
Picture | Xataka with ChatGPT
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